Zambia has reached a decisive moment in its economic and statistical journey. With the successful completion of the 2022 Census of Population and Housing, the conduct of the Economic Establishment Census in 2025, and the ongoing delimitation exercise in 2026, the country now possesses the most comprehensive and up-to-date demographic, business and spatial data in its history. What remains is the critical next step: rebasing Zambia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Without this exercise, much of the value of these national undertakings risks being blunted. GDP rebasing is no longer optional; it is a policy and governance necessity.
GDP is the most widely used indicator of economic performance. It informs government budgeting, debt sustainability analysis, investment decisions, poverty reduction strategies and international comparisons. However, GDP figures are only as accurate as the base year on which they are calculated. Zambia’s current GDP base year, 2010, is now more than fifteen years old. In that period, the structure of the Zambian economy has changed profoundly. New sectors have emerged, production patterns have shifted, technology has transformed commerce, and consumption habits have evolved. An economy measured using outdated assumptions inevitably produces distorted results.
GDP rebasing simply means updating the reference year used to calculate national output so that it reflects the current structure, prices and composition of the economy. It does not artificially create growth or wealth; it corrects measurement errors that accumulate over time. When rebasing is delayed, entire sectors become undercounted or excluded, while others are overstated. The result is an economy that looks smaller, less diverse and less dynamic than it truly is.
The importance of rebasing Zambia’s GDP is amplified by the timing and quality of recent national statistical exercises. The 2022 Census of Population and Housing, conducted using a fully digital platform, provided accurate and disaggregated data on population size, distribution, age structure, labour force potential and household characteristics. These variables are fundamental inputs in the calculation of per-capita GDP, labour productivity, consumption patterns and social sector planning. Without rebasing, the full analytical value of this census data cannot be realised.
Equally significant is the Economic Establishment Census conducted in 2025. This exercise mapped the universe of economic activity across the country, capturing data on firms, employment levels, production output, ownership structures and sectoral distribution. For the first time in many years, Zambia has an updated picture of its productive economy, including emerging activities in services, construction, digital finance, transport, tourism and the informal sector. These are precisely the kinds of activities that are poorly reflected in a 2010 base year. GDP rebasing allows these sectors to be properly integrated into national accounts, providing a truer picture of where growth is coming from.
The ongoing delimitation process in 2026 further strengthens the case for rebasing. Delimitation is based on updated population data and reflects current settlement patterns, urbanisation trends and economic geography. When aligned with rebased GDP figures, it enables more accurate sub-national economic analysis, better resource allocation and fairer development planning. This is particularly important for decentralisation, constituency development planning and equitable public investment.
Beyond statistical accuracy, GDP rebasing has profound implications for economic governance and fiscal policy. Key fiscal indicators such as the budget deficit, tax revenue performance and public debt sustainability are expressed as ratios of GDP. When GDP is underestimated due to an outdated base year, these ratios are artificially inflated. This can create the impression of excessive indebtedness or weak fiscal performance even when underlying conditions are improving. For Zambia, which has recently undergone a complex debt restructuring process and remains under close scrutiny by international creditors and investors, accurate GDP measurement is essential for credibility and confidence.
Debt-to-GDP ratios, in particular, play a central role in shaping investor sentiment, credit ratings and access to concessional financing. Rebasing GDP provides a more realistic denominator, allowing policymakers and markets to assess debt sustainability in relation to the true size of the economy. This does not eliminate fiscal responsibility, but it ensures that decisions are based on reality rather than statistical artefacts.
GDP rebasing also improves policy prioritisation. Governments rely on sectoral GDP data to determine where to direct incentives, infrastructure investment and regulatory reform. If fast-growing or employment-intensive sectors are undercounted, they remain invisible to policy. Rebasing brings these sectors into focus, enabling targeted support that can accelerate diversification, job creation and inclusive growth. In Zambia’s case, this includes services, small-scale manufacturing, logistics, tourism, and segments of the informal economy that sustain millions of livelihoods.
Internationally, GDP rebasing is recognised as standard statistical practice. Most countries update their base years every five to ten years to keep pace with economic transformation. Delaying this exercise signals institutional inertia and undermines comparability with peer economies. Conversely, timely rebasing demonstrates statistical competence, transparency and commitment to evidence-based policymaking. These qualities matter deeply to development partners, foreign investors and multilateral institutions.
Most importantly, GDP rebasing has implications for ordinary Zambians. Accurate economic data improves social policy design, poverty measurement, employment strategies and service delivery. When economic activity is correctly measured, government interventions are better aligned with lived realities. Growth statistics begin to reflect how people actually earn, spend and survive. In this sense, rebasing is not merely a technical exercise; it is a democratic one, ensuring that national statistics speak truthfully about the country and its people.
Zambia has already done the hard work. The population has been counted. Businesses have been enumerated. Boundaries are being realigned to reflect demographic reality. To stop short of GDP rebasing would be to leave this national effort incomplete. The data exists. The methodology is well established. What is required now is political will and institutional urgency.
Zambia needs a new economic base year. Rebasing GDP, using recent census and establishment data, will anchor economic policy in reality, strengthen fiscal credibility, improve investment confidence and support inclusive development. The moment is ripe, and the cost of delay is far greater than the effort required. It is time for GDP rebasing.
