Minister of Finance and National Planning has hailed the steady normalization of Zambia’s international trade flows, which reflects strengthening macroeconomic stability.
According to the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats), cumulative total trade rose to K663.7 billion in December 2025 from K587.6 billion in December 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13 percent. Zambia also recorded a trade surplus of K1 billion, reversing episodic deficits seen earlier in the year.
In December 2025, total exports increased by 3.9 percent compared to December 2024, driven mainly by a sharp 15.8 percent surge in raw materials and a 3.4 percent rise in intermediate goods, while capital goods exports edged up by 0.7 percent.
Reflecting on the country’s trade performance, Finance Minister Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane said the trajectory reflects sustained, month-by-month expansion in trade activity throughout the year, rather than a one-off surge, signalling resilience in both export performance and domestic demand for productive imports.
Dr. Musokotwane noted that the pattern points to strengthening upstream production and resource-linked supply chains, with early indications that value-linked trade momentum is beginning to re-emerge.
“On the import side, growth remained measured and largely productivity-oriented. Imports (CIF) rose by 2.7 percent, with capital goods increasing by 20.1 percent and intermediate goods by 8.5 percent, alongside a 14.9 percent rise in raw materials,” Dr. Musokotwane noted.
He explained that the dominance of capital and intermediate goods within import growth suggests external inflows are increasingly aligned with investment, industrial capacity expansion, and future output rather than consumption-led pressures.
“This composition is critical in sustaining growth while safeguarding external stability. Reviewed together with information on the performance of the economy and the outlook for 2026 shared at our Townhall last week, these trade outcomes indicate that the country is transitioning decisively from stabilization to consolidation,” he said.
Dr. Musokotwane stressed that improvements in trade balances, the tilt of imports toward productive inputs, and the return to surplus are clear indications that growth is becoming more internally anchored and externally resilient.
“In practical terms, the economy is beginning to generate—and import—the machinery, intermediate goods, and raw materials required to lift domestic value creation across mining, agriculture, manufacturing, and energy,” Dr. Musokotwane stressed.
Looking ahead to 2026, he said Zambia is better positioned to absorb growth without reigniting macroeconomic imbalances.
“The structure of trade suggests that future export capacity is being built in the present, while the moderated pace of import growth reduces pressure on reserves and the exchange rate,” Dr. Musoni added.
The Minister said this creates space for monetary policy to remain focused on disinflation and for fiscal policy to progressively shift toward growth-enhancing expenditure rather than crisis management.
“For investors, producers, and households, the signal embedded in these data is one of improving predictability rather than exuberance. Trade performance is no longer being driven solely by episodic price movements but by a broader normalization of economic activity. If sustained, this trajectory supports a virtuous cycle through 2026,” he stressed.
Dr. Musokotwane emphasized that, over time, the positive trade performance should translate into firmer price stability, expanding employment opportunities, and a stronger platform for inclusive and durable growth.
“We expect the economy to progress in 2026 as we continue to steadily rebuild and lay the groundwork for investment-led growth, anchored in improving fundamentals.”
