Zambia’s successful completion of the IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF) marks a defining moment in the country’s recent economic history. With the IMF Executive Board approving the sixth and final review and unlocking a last disbursement of about US$190 million, Zambia closes a difficult but necessary chapter of macroeconomic stabilisation and opens another—one focused on growth, investment, and job creation.
This milestone is not merely about the release of funds. It is a powerful signal to markets, citizens, and development partners that Zambia has rebuilt a measure of policy credibility after years of economic distress. Over the 38-month ECF period, total disbursements reached about US$1.7 billion, providing crucial balance-of-payments support at a time when the country was grappling with high debt, inflationary pressures, climate shocks, and global economic turbulence. That Zambia has reached the end of this programme, despite these shocks, speaks to a level of fiscal discipline and policy consistency that had long been missing.
The IMF’s own assessment is telling. It acknowledges that while some reforms were implemented later than planned, overall programme performance was broadly satisfactory and macroeconomic management remained sound. This is an important endorsement, particularly given Zambia’s history of programme slippages. It suggests that the country has, at least for now, learned the hard lessons of living beyond its means and relying on unsustainable borrowing.
Finance and National Planning Minister Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane’s framing of this moment is equally significant. By describing the completion of the ECF as a transition from stabilisation to a growth-focused reform phase, the Government is signalling that austerity alone cannot be the end goal. Stabilisation was necessary to stop the economic bleeding, but growth is what will ultimately determine whether ordinary Zambians feel any improvement in their daily lives. Without jobs, incomes, and productive opportunities, macroeconomic stability risks becoming an elite statistic rather than a lived reality.
At the same time, it would be naïve to assume that the hardest work is now behind us. The IMF has been clear that while Zambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable, it remains at high risk of debt distress. This means the margin for policy error is still extremely thin. Continued fiscal consolidation, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, and disciplined, prudent borrowing are not optional—they are essential if the gains achieved under the ECF are not to be reversed.
Equally critical is the completion of external debt restructuring. Until Zambia fully resolves its debt overhang with all creditors, confidence will remain fragile and borrowing costs elevated. The Government’s commitment to sustained engagement with creditors is therefore not just a technical exercise; it is central to preserving stability and freeing fiscal space for social services and development spending.
The IMF’s positive outlook—anchored in strong mining activity, improved agricultural performance, and better electricity generation—offers reasons for cautious optimism. But optimism must be matched with deliberate policy choices. Mining growth, for example, must translate into broader value addition, local content development, and fiscal revenues that benefit the wider economy. Agriculture must move beyond resilience toward productivity and agro-processing. Improved electricity generation must underpin industrialisation, not simply avert load shedding crises.
Governance and institutional reforms also remain a decisive factor. The emphasis placed by both the IMF and Government on transparency and accountability is well-founded. Stronger institutions are not abstract ideals; they are practical tools for reducing waste, curbing corruption, improving service delivery, and building investor confidence. Without visible progress on governance, economic reforms will struggle to gain public legitimacy.
As Zambia prepares to engage the IMF on a successor programme, the challenge will be to ensure continuity without complacency. A new arrangement should consolidate macroeconomic discipline while placing greater emphasis on growth, diversification, and inclusion. Crucially, it must remain nationally owned. IMF programmes succeed not because they are externally imposed, but because governments choose to align them with long-term national development goals.
In completing the ECF, Zambia has demonstrated that reform is possible, even under severe constraints. The task now is to convert restored credibility into tangible economic transformation. Stability has been earned at a high social and political cost. The next phase must ensure that this stability becomes the foundation for jobs, investment, and shared prosperity—so that the success of the programme is measured not only in IMF reviews, but in the lived experience of Zambians themselves.
